Thrashers deal Havelid

In a move that was only surprising by the timing (two days before the trade deadline), Don Waddell, general manager and vice president of the Atlanta Thrashers Hockey Club, dealt the franchise’s best defenseman Niclas Havelid along with ECHL toughman Myles Stoesz for to the New Jersey Devils for Finnish defenseman Anssi Salmela.

Initial reaction from 99.9 percent of Atlanta Thrashers fans? Who?

Anssi Salmela is a hard-nosed, hard-shooting blueliner that has been tagged with the label “offensive defenseman.” Salmela is somewhere between 5-11 and 6-0 tall and 185-195 lbs. according to different sports websites and has been in involved in some shady moments both on and off the ice.

Salmela is rumored to have been in a bar fight in Finland a couple years ago and also took on David Backes (one very tough customer) at the World Junior Championships not too long ago. Anssi is 24 years old an was an undrafted free agent signed this summer by New Jersey.

Before coming to North America, Salmela played for Tappara Tampere in the Finnish League with Thrasher prospects Jonas Enlund and Niclas Lucenius, both forwards. According to Ben Wright of the Blueland Blog, Don Waddell had between 35-40 scouting reports on Salmela before he pulled the trigger on this deal.

Anssi has played 17 games with the Devils this season with three assists and six minutes in the penalty box. Salmela has scored well at the AHL level with 24 points (8 goals, 16 assists) with Lowell, New Jersey’s minor league affiliate.

Also in the Blueland Blog were Waddell’s plans for Anssi Salmela. Due to a blow to the head in an AHL game last week, Salmela has been off the ice recently. Atlanta plans on sending Salmela to Chicago for a conditioning stint over the weekend and then calling him up for the road trip that begins on Monday.

Some other news and notes involving this trade… Waddell said he received offers for 2nd round picks but opted for a player that could step in now… The Thrashers didn’t settle for Salmela but actually got a player they wanted (according to Waddell)… Due to little ice time at the ECHL level, Myles Stoesz’s agent had asked Waddell to look into the option of moving Stoesz to a team that might give him an opportunity.

So, there is the news… Zim’s take:

Pros
• Not that this was near as dramatic as the Marian Hossa saga of last season (that obviously affected the team’s play on ice), but the Thrashers’ moving their biggest chip in the early stages of the “trade frenzy” might not be such a distraction to the team tonight as they take on the Panthers.
• Anssi Salmela is young, experienced, and tough as nails. The Thrashers are starting to assimilate a defensive unit that has players with multiple skill sets. So many years in the past Atlanta has had a tough guy that can’t skate or shoot or an offensive-minded powerplay specialist that can’t play a lick in his own zone. Salmela brings a chippy game with some offensive upside. He’s by no means a blue chip, but the Thrashers seem to think he’ll fit the system.
• Salmela is Finnish. I know this might not seem like a big deal, but Kari Lehtonen is a Finn and communication, along with comfort, for foreign players in North America can be very helpful on the ice. The Thrashers also have a pretty promising center prospect in Jonas Enlund that has already played with Salmela and doesn’t know much English. Salmela, though not brought in for this purpose in any way, shape, or form, could help the small, but potentially growing group of Finnish players on the Thrashers.
• Salmela is cheap and an RFA after this season. Anssi is making $562,000 and unless he completely impresses in the final 19 games of the season, Salmela won’t be too expensive to re-sign.
• With Havelid and Schneider gone, the Thrashers have committed to the youth movement… especially on the blueline. In honesty, this is what I’ve wanted all along; to grow defensemen together. With veteran presence from Ron Hainsey and Garnet Exelby, the young group of Zach Bogosian, Boris Valabik, Anssi Salmela, Nathan Oystrick, and possibly Artus Kulda are part of the immediate future. Atlanta also has brought up Grant Lewis, maybe to play tonight, along with Chad Denny, Scott Lehman, Brett Skinner, and Clay Wilson as depth defensemen. The Thrashers have some promising youngsters in Paul Postma (tearing up the WHL) and Andrei Zubarev (highly touted Russian).

Cons
• First and foremost, the Thrashers lose a consummate professional and a rock steady presence on the blueline in Niclas Havelid. Though it may not be a boast to call Niclas Havelid the best defenseman in franchise history, the fact is that it is true.
• Waddell is taking a slight risk on Salmela. He’s not an established talent and Waddell has yet to see a similar trade that brought promising, but unproven players to Atlanta (Hossa bringing back Colby Armstrong and Erik Christensen) pay off.
• The Thrashers could have tried to push the price up by waiting until closer to the deadline. Waddell was receiving offers that included 2nd round picks. In a deep draft, the Thrashers could have picked up a second pick in that round and draft three of the top-60 players available in the world. There is always a chance that Salmela will not be as good as the player that could have been drafted.
• If Salmela does play in the NHL, Atlanta still has seven defenseman and somebody is going to have to sit each and every game. Honestly, this doesn’t bother me as I believe that Nathan Oystrick is a perfectly serviceable seventh defenseman in the NHL.

To me, the pros outweigh the cons on this deal. Atlanta gets a player that the front office wanted, for whatever reason, and right now I trust that judgement. I’ve been much more impressed with the type of young talent that Waddell has brought in over the past three drafts/seasons. The Rich Peverley acquisition has worked out well, I’m willing to wait on Anssi Salmela.

Personally, with some of the youth already in the system and the fact that we still have all of our draft picks for June and then some, I like Waddell’s approach of trying to find players that can contribute now or very soon. Prospects and promising young players are the GM’s targets this deadline and I agree.

Everybody always wants to look at draft picks as the right way to go, but the percentages are lower than you might think… I believe The Falconer valued 2nd round picks as yielding NHL regulars 15-20 percent of the time.

I look forward to watching Anssi Salmela the rest of this season and I certainly wish Niclas Havelid well in New Jersey. We will miss his steady play.

The Art of Line Combinations

After some recent discussion on the Official Atlanta Thrashers Message Boards as well as some comments on this very blog, Slightly Off-Topic has decided to take a deeper look into the makeup of how and why forward lines are created, when the lines need to be shaken up, and the stratification of skill set within.

Making up lines is not as simple as just putting three guys on the ice at a time and hoping that everything goes well. There are schools of thought, prevailing ideas, style of play considerations, and many more moving parts that factor into the forming and breaking up of line combinations.

As an Atlanta Thrashers intensive web log, Slightly Off-Topic will focus on the overall themes of line combinations, but relate those ideas to John Anderson and our interpretations of his forward jumblings.

The first part of this discussion is going to seem relatively obvious for true hockey fans, but we are going to go through it anyways. First, we must identify the lines themselves. In the traditional forms, the four forward lines usually serve these roles:

First Line – A scoring line that normally features each team’s most dangerous offensive player. The #1 line is called such because the idea is that a team’s top line is the trio of forwards that delivers the most offensive production. This does not always mean that the three most talented offensive players make up this line, but rather the three players that consistently provide offensive zone time… at the least.

Second Line – May feature great offensive threats, like the first line, but generally provides depth scoring. In hockey, there are many great players that aren’t considered “first line material,” but still have the offensive skill set to be top six players. The top six forward slots are generally reserved for point producing NHL players. There are exceptions to every rule and depending on some of the line philosophies that we will look at later in this entry, teams may decide to purposely put a bottom six style player into a top six role. In general, the second line is a unit that doesn’t have the same level of skill as the first line, but is cast in an offensive role.

Third Line – The most diverse line on most teams, the third line is a swing line for many coaches. Traditionally, the third line has been a defensively sound trio of forwards that has some, but not much, offensive punch. Many teams, in today’s NHL, look to the third line to provide energy and forechecking. The type of players that make up third lines usually have some grit to their game, but also provide depth on offense. Many NHL teams will feature a 20-goal scorer on the third line, but generally it is a unit that has a defense-first mentality.

Fourth Line – In most cases, the fourth line is a unit that is built solely to provide toughness and energy. Of four lines, the fourth (obviously) will get the least minutes on ice. This should allow the fourth line to have fresh legs each and every shift… leading to strong forechecking shifts and some agitating play. The fourth line will normally feature a NHL team’s most likely fighting option. Goals are few and far between for the fourth line, but any offensive contribution generally comes as a result of a strong forecheck.

In a nutshell, those are loose descriptions of what the four forward lines look like in the NHL traditionally. As coaches begin to evaluate their rosters and start piecing together line combinations, I am of the belief that most hockey coaches will try and do two things first:

1.) Every coach is going to identify the most likely sources of offense. Essentially, where are the goals going to come from? For Atlanta Thrashers fans, there is one obvious choice to start with and he comes in a 6-2, Russian sized wrapper. That man is Ilya Kovalchuk. When assigning line combinations, Ilya Kovalchuk is the star of the show… who gets to play with him? How does he get used? Who has chemistry with him? Ah, the C-word… an opinionated, intangible quality of a line.

2.) What are my weaknesses? Every coach knows what their strengths and weaknesses are going to be and in some cases a certain combination of lines may be able to hide some of those problems. If Atlanta, as a team, does not match up in a certain way, such as speed, size, or skill, then the coaches’ job is to mask that weakness as best he can.

It is at this point, when the strengths and weaknesses of a team’s forward unit has been identified, that the overall schools of thought come into play. What I mean by this is that some coaches have different ideas of how lines should work.

There is a common perception that balance is an important theme when creating lines. The size, speed, and skill of the forwards must be balanced so that other teams have a hard time matching up.

As an example, earlier in the season John Anderson put defensive-minded players Marty Reasoner and Chris Thorburn onto a line with offensively-gifted, but defensively-challenged Ilya Kovalchuk. What was the purpose of this line? In the past, Kovalchuk had shown some decent chemistry with Chris Thorburn on his right wing and even further back, Ilya had done well with chippy right wingers (Mellanby, Sim, Petrovicky).

Anderson, noting this, might have tried to mask Kovalchuk’s deficiencies on the backend by putting out more responsible two-way players. At the same time that John Anderson tried this trio, his second unit of Slava Kozlov, Todd White, and Bryan Little were producing many offensive chances and points. Anderson could afford to tinker with Kovalchuk’s line.

Balance is not always the way. Depending on the personnel of a team, an overloading tactic is a possibility as well. There are many teams in the NHL that have three premier players that play on the same line. The most obvious example is the Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley line in Ottawa. Rather than attempting to balance the scoring, the Senators have gone with the one dominating offensive line that gets a ton of minutes and gives opposing teams fits in the match-up game.

Personally, I like balance in the lines and I think it is evident that John Anderson feels the same way.

Now the difficult part of creating lines… what works? This is where chemistry sets in. An attribute of a line that some people see and others don’t and when the others that don’t see it do, then the ones who saw it don’t anymore… confusing right? So is the mystery of chemistry.

With the broad theme of full set of lines in place, the hard part is taking the pieces and connecting them together. What makes that even more difficult is that the puzzle is constantly shifting and changing… rendering something that fit and looked good at one point totally useless 15 games later.

Each hockey coach, whether they will admit it or not, has an idea of what will and won’t work. With that idea in place, many hockey coaches will try the same thing over and over again hoping that it will finally click. Sometimes it does and other times it does not… it’s just a human tendency… to want to make your ideas work.

There is a philosophy that playmakers don’t necessarily need the most talented players around them to be successful. Example: Joe Thornton hops on a line with Jonathan Cheechoo in San Jose a few years ago and Cheechoo scores 52 goals.

There is a philosophy that a North American style large winger can benefit by playing with teammates that play an east-to-west, lateral style game. Example: Mike Knuble this season with Philadelphia.

There is a philosophy that having the top two offensive lines with different styles, one with a puck possession game and the other a quick-hitting, on the rush style will keep an defense off-balanced. Example: This season’s Boston Bruins.

There are countless hockey philosophies, but the most important aspect when creating and dealing with line combinations is flow. Similar to chemistry, but not the same, flow the part of the game that you notice without noticing.

Chemistry is knowing what the other player is going to do and when they are going to do it… a trust and a complimenting style of play. Flow is the execution of that complimenting style of play. What we are seeing from Bryan Little and Ilya Kovalchuk in the current line situation for the Thrashers is the development of chemistry, but the flow of their games was already intertwined.

Little and Kovalchuk play the game at the same pace and fill lanes, gaps, and patches of ice for each other.

There is no science to making line combinations. It is an art in which the players themselves are self-propelled brushes painting wonderful masterpieces or chaotic confusion. The coach just gives or doesn’t give them the opportunity.

For the Thrashers current lines, I believe that John Anderson is trying to create a balanced, unified attack. The speed that Kovalchuk and Little have is unmatched by any other Thrasher. Todd White may not share the chemistry with those two that Rich Peverley could, but White is holding his own.

Peverley, in turn, has shown pretty good chemistry with any linemates and that has continued with Marty Reasoner and Slava Kozlov. With a not-so-educated guess, I believe that Reasoner is playing second line minutes to be showcased for a potential trade.

The third line has received a speed boost from Colin Stuart and Erik Christensen as Anderson has really placed at least one strong skater on every line. Stuart’s offensive skills are solid and Colby Armstrong is on pace for a 20-goal season. Christensen, despite his struggles, has an offensive mind, but has played slightly better on defense as the third line center than he did on the first or second lines.

The fourth line provides the grit with Boulton and Thorburn. Eric Perrin has played extremely well and skated with purpose over the last 15 games. When Jim Slater is healthy to return, the Thrashers have a very energetic and opportunistic fourth line that is usually defensively sound.

As a whole, with the current success, these lines make a certain amount of sense for Anderson. I think that Reasoner is not long for the top six, despite his good play. Erik Christensen isn’t a prototypical third line center and has struggled to stay in the lineup this season. I don’t think Todd White is a #1 center. It is my opinion that White is better in the number two slot and without Kovalchuk to his left.

Would I do the lines differently? Initially yes, but there is a method to Anderson’s line of thinking and he’s not just flipping lines around, like Bob Hartley, to hope that something sticks. John has a reason for what he’s doing with the forwards and in recent days that has translated to some success on the ice… which we can all appreciate.

Schneider to Montreal... West Coast Swing... LaVallee Watch

Alright, nearly a week has gone by and I’m itching to update this Web Log… Last time on Slightly Off-Topic, I got slightly excited about the prospects of Jordan LaVallee entering the Thrashers lineup after his call-up to Atlanta from Chicago. A little bit later on in this entry I’ll share my thoughts on Jordan, his time with the Thrashers, and when he might get a look on the ice.

But first, there is more pressing news… though old by now, Mathieu Schneider has been traded to the Montreal Canadiens for a 2^nd round pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft (originally Anaheim’s) and a third round pick in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft. The Thrashers also sent a conditional pick to Montreal for this year’s draft that will be determined based on how the Canadiens wrap up their playoff story.

I’d diagram this trade from a Canadien perspective, but I just don’t care. The Thrashers were essentially able to trade Ken Klee and Brad Larsen for two third round or better picks in the next two drafts. An additional second rounder this year could be an extremely valuable asset. Due to the projected depth of this year’s draft class, holding two second round picks could be a large bargaining chip if Atlanta wants to try to A.) Move up for a second first round pick (Atlanta will undoubtedly have a lottery i.e. top-5 draft pick) or B.) Package the second rounder with other picks/players/prospects to pick up a prospect/NHL player.

What this deal does for Atlanta is give them options for this year’s draft… We already know that Atlanta is going to end up with a top level talent, whether it’s Victor Hedman, John Tavares, Magnus Svenssen-Paajarvi, Evander Kane, Matt Duchene, etc.

Two second round picks, in such a deep draft, are going to be very important in complimenting whatever the Thrashers end up doing with the top-5 pick. If Atlanta goes defenseman (Hedman), then the Thrashers may be able to package the two second rounders to get a first round talent forward or Atlanta can go with the two second rounders to address forward depth.

The acquisition of Mathieu Schneider, though not necessarily successful on the ice, was a smart move by Waddell. Schneider filled salary requirements, relished a role of mentor for our young Zach Bogosian, brought a professional attitude to the ice every day, and then was moved for assets more valuable than what he cost to bring him here.

All-in-all, the Schneider saga in Atlanta was a success for the Thrashers. The part of this whole process that makes me most pleased was that in an interview with Darren Eliot on SportSouth during the Kings game, Waddell made clear that he had tried to pry away some prospects from the Canadiens.

Waddell did the right thing by moving Schneider now and getting a solid return. Since Schneider was the only blatently obvious tradable commodity, Waddell can now pick and choose on potential deals for the likes of Marty Reasoner, Colby Armstrong, Niclas Havelid, and any other Thrashers that might draw interest come March 4.

With Schneider in the review mirror, how about the Atlanta Thrashers and that killer offense, eh? Where did this come from?

Over the past two games, both wins over Anaheim and L.A., the Thrashers have scored 14 goals in regulation and put 70 shots on goal in 125 minutes. This… is Thrashers hockey? I’d like to think so. I’d like to think that this current stretch out on the coast is the meshing of John Anderson’s system within his players. I’d like to think that…

But… (dang, not a but!), let’s be honest here. Anaheim’s Jean-Sebastian Giguerre and L.A’s Jonathan Quick didn’t exactly have great starts in goal. Both were victimized on goals that, on a normal goaltending day, would have been stopped. The statistics are inflated, yes, but the results are not.

Atlanta thoroughly out-played Anaheim on Sunday and Monday’s evaporation of a 6-3 lead over the Kings was a combination of tired legs on back-to-back nights and an extremely hungry L.A. squad led by the Slovene Machine Anze Kopitar!!!!

Okay, I got the best of both worlds on Tuesday… watched Atlanta get a win after another sweet shootout move by Erik Christensen and also saw Anze score two goals and an assists. For those that may not know, I’m of Slovenian decent and Kopitar is the first to play in the NHL (but hopefully not the last… Go Jan Mursak in Grand Rapids!).

As bad as the starting goalies were for both teams, nobody can take anything away from Ilya Kovalchuk. You see that article that is at the bottom of the blog? Cross that sucker out because Kovalchuk is back! The last two games, he’s been Ilya good. Ahem, by the way, Kovalchuk is now on pace for 41 goals (Monty… this is your big fat “I told you so.”).

Great start on the road trip, but Atlanta has the capability to keep this going with a Phoenix Coyote’s franchise that has lost nine out of their last 10 games and has just one win in February. Could this be our first Jordan LaVallee sighting?

Personally, I don’t think it’s going to happen on Thursday. I want it to happen, but I don’t think so. Coaches are weird creatures and John Anderson hasn’t won enough at the NHL level to change things up after a two game winning streak… unless somebody is banged up.

One guy that won’t be coming out of the lineup in favor of LaVallee is Colin Stuart. With back-to-back games netting a short-handed goal, Stuart might be making a player like Eric Perrin expendable on the trade market. Stuart has an NHL skating stride and he’s playing the type of game that could earn him an NHL paycheck. The key for Colin is to continue on the path… he played really well in his initial call-up last season, but eventually fell into a pattern of mediocrity. Hopefully, Colin learned his lesson and now knows what to bring on a nightly basis to stay in the NHL.

Great start to the trip. Great trade by Waddell. Great seeing Kovalchuk get hot. Even greater watching Atlanta win. Hey, for once it feels kind of good to be a Thrasher fan… I’m not going to get used to it.

It's LaVallee Time!

As broken on the Thrashers Message Board (partly by yours truly), the Thrashers have recalled Jordan LaVallee from the Chicago Wolves of the AHL.

What does this mean?

This means that Joe Motzko, while playing decently in his NHL time with Atlanta, is not a part of the future for the Atlanta Thrashers. This means that Jordan LaVallee should get a chance to prove that he is worth a full-time roster spot for more than two NHL games. This means the line predictions before Sunday's game against the Anaheim Ducks will be plentiful.

We don't yet know where Jordan will play (most likely LW) and on which line (my guess is between a healthy Marty Reasoner and Colby Armstrong), but his role is actually pretty well defined: show up ready to play every day, give 100 percent, play defensively responsible, and use your size.

These are all aspects of LaVallee's game that should translate to the NHL. Will his 15 AHL goals lead to some scoring opportunities at this level? This blogster thinks so, but I have to admit that Jordan has been one of my favorite prospects since his drafting in 2005.

Don't expect highlight reel goals or no-look passes, but Jordan should bring a north-south, hard nosed game to the rink... a much needed style of play as the Thrashers embark on a Western Conference swing.

Good luck Jordan and earn yourself an NHL paycheck!

The Future of Thrashers’ Defense: Part Two – Personnel

On Monday, February 9, 2009 at 8:17 a.m. (according to the Slightly Off-Topic blog time… which is totally off-topic itself), I had a well thought out introduction written to begin the discussion on the Thrashers’ lack of defensive success since the inception of the franchise.

Today, Thursday, February 12, 2009 at whatever time this finally gets posted, I have no such cool, laser-guided, music-pumping, introduction. I thought briefly about having some sort of chess reference and how the Thrashers don’t have the right pieces in place to implement a successful strategy. Upon further review, that intro was really lame… so this is what you get. I hope you are still reading.

On-Topic: RE: Thrashers defense via the personnel… forward we go. This is Part Two.

As layed out on Monday, the most glaring problem with the Atlanta Thrashers defense, in my estimation, is the lack of a consistent, aggressive forecheck. Before I go clamoring on about how Jordan LaVallee is a perfect fit and Riley Holzapfel is the checking line center of the future, let us discuss the type of attributes that players need to have in an aggressive forecheck… in order of importance.

1. Everyday I’m Hustlin’ – The most important part of a successful forecheck is hard work. The whole concept surrounding a good press is to force turnovers based on offensive third pressure. A team that is willing to work tirelessly on the forecheck is going to create tons of opporunities through sheer work ethic.
   

2. I feel the need, the need for speed – Skating, more specifically. Straight foot speed is a bonus, but overall skating ability is more important to the forecheck. The difference between them is simple. Skating incorporates speed, but also factors in acceleration, the ability to change directions (mobility), and response time (agility). Forwards need to have all or a combination of most of these skating skills to be relatively effective on the forecheck.

3. Who is responsible for this? – Otherwise known as the mythical, intangible “hockey sense.” Responsibility on the ice is difficult to gauge. Some players are taught a responsible role from an early age, others are taught much later on… even at the NHL level. Discipline and awareness are integral working parts of a player becoming responsible. In an aggressive forecheck, a team must have hockey savvy players that are aggressive at the right times. Responsibility factors in when a player makes the wrong decision, but is able to recover in some form or fashion. This is all just a hurricane of words to do describe a good defender.

With these three broad aspects in mind, who on the current Thrashers team has what? I’ve compiled a list of the current Thrashers forwards as of the current date with each players forechecking qualities. You may disagree, if so, please note why in the comments section… I’d love some feedback on this.

Colby Armstrong – 1, 3
Eric Boulton – 1, 3
Erik Christensen – 2
Ilya Kovalchuk – 2
Slava Kozlov – 3
Bryan Little – 1, 2, 3
Joe Motzko - 3
Eric Perrin – 1, 2, 3
Rich Peverley – 1, 2, 3
Marty Reasoner – 1, 3
Jim Slater – 1, 2
Colin Stuart – 1, 2, 3
Chris Thorburn – 1
Todd White – 3

Now, I know there is going to be some disagreement, especially when you factor in some of the performances of these players this season. Please keep in mind that this is based purely on an attribute level, not on performance this season.

Out of the current Thrashers forwards, I see four players that consistently show all of the characteristics of a good forechecking forward.

Now, no team is going to have 13 forwards that will top the charts in all three categories. The main concern with the Atlanta Thrashers (and this is a team-wide concern, not just defensively) is that this team doesn’t have enough combination forwards. Guys that have at least two of the three forechecking qualities, plus intangibles like size or strength or good hands.

Take Todd White and Slava Kozlov for instance. These are both veteran players that were two-thirds of the Thrashers best scoring line for the first half of the season. The name of their game was puck possession though, not turnovers off the forecheck. White is a relatively responsible defensive player that has a good skating stride, but I wouldn’t say he skates as well as the other 2’s on that list. Personally, though Todd’s game has been much more consistent this season, I still see him conserving energy on the forecheck… the same goes for Kozlov.

Not every line has to be a force on the forecheck and that can work to the Thrashers advantage. However, if the system is to be uniform, then all of the players must at least play a style of the uniform forecheck. This is something that I, as a fan, have just not seen.

Now the fun part… who could help the Thrashers? Understanding what type of player the Thrashers need to be successful on the forecheck is the first step to finding out who can help this team and where.

In my opinion, the upgrade on the forecheck has to start in the bottom six. Though this could be a topic for a blog any other day, the Thrashers have tried to force many square bottom six pegs into top six circle slots.

Guys like Joe Motzko, Chris Thorburn, Marty Reasoner, and arguably Colby Armstrong are all bottom six players that have been given shots to play in a top six role. This is not a problem if there are some bonafide forecheckers and/or scoring options in the bottom six to level out the lines… but for the Thrashers there aren’t.

There will be plenty of free agent options, many of which won’t be Thrasher material (either by our or their own estimation) in July, but let’s focus on some of the Thrashers prospects that might have a chance to crack the lineup in the legitimate future.

Spencer Machacek – By all accounts, Machacek is nearly a 1, 2, 3 player already for the Wolves of Chicago. A right winger, Spencer has heralded by scouts for his tireless work ethic (#1 on my list for a good forechecker) and is also scouted as being good in the high traffic areas as well as in the corners. Machacek is the prototypical forechecking winger.

Where could he fit? It’s too early to peg Machacek for a top six role and especially not with the added pressure of playing the right side of Ilya Kovalchuk (dreamers take note). Machacek could definitely fill the role of an Eric Boulton, Joe Motzko, or even (if he gets moved) Colby Armstrong on the bottom lines by next season… depending on the deadline deals Atlanta makes in March.

Jordan LaVallee – Got a cup of coffee last season and with his size, fluid skating, physical presence, and work ethic, Jordan is certainly a 1,2 player and probably on his way to getting 3 down as well. With a couple years in the Wolves system, LaVallee has shown that he can put some pucks in the net, play the penalty kill, and deliver some sound body checks. For some reason, I have this feeling that the Thrashers want LaVallee to play more of a role like Chris Thorburn (enforcer with some offensive skill) rather than what I’d like to see him play (a Colby Armstrong-style player on the left side). I think Jordan has 15-goal potential down the line in the NHL. Much like Colin Stuart, LaVallee’s skating stride should at least get him a shot.

Where could he fit? Third line left wing spot looks perfect to me. Maybe not this season, but if Atlanta were to put LaVallee with Reasoner in the middle and Armstrong on the right side… oh man, that looks like a forechecking line to be reckoned with on a nightly basis. Once again though, I think the Thrashers want him to be a different type of player than he really is.

Riley Holzapfel – Apparently, Riley has third line center written all over him. I’ve seen less of Holzapfel than the other two, but Riley may not be strong enough up the middle to be a center at the NHL level. Holzapfel is another guy that has 1 and 2 of the above categories along with the potential to be a defensively sound player.

Where could he fit? Unless Marty Reasoner and Eric Perrin get moved at the deadline, Holzapfel won’t play center at the NHL level this season. I could definitely see Riley make the transition to left wing, at least to start off his NHL career. Colin Stuart said after he came up that both Machacek and Holzapfel were players to watch for as each was playing good hockey when Stuart left the Wolves.

I’m holding off until the deadline to state what the Thrashers should do at the forward position regarding call-ups. Atlanta my bring in a player or two that has NHL potential that might get a look over those three or a trade might open up a spot for one or two current Wolves.

The fact is that these three players could be very valuable in the Thrashers future as they look to improve the defense starting from up top.

So, 1,557 words later, the future of the Thrashers defense actually gets to the blueliners. With the trade deadline looming a little less than a month away, the Thrashers are sure to have a shake up on the backend. Mathieu Schneider is almost certainly guaranteed to be on the move and Niclas Havelid has been a subject of trade rumors as well.

The Thrashers actually have a couple of promising young defensemen that give rise to hope… if the forecheck can be fixed. Tobias Enstrom, Zach Bogosian, Boris Valabik, and Nathan Oystrick all occupy NHL roster spots and are likely to do so for the rest of the season.

Atlanta also has Ron Hainsey and Garnet Exelby under contract for a couple more years. If the defenders of Blueland really are part of a rebuilding process, then I think the Thrashers will move Niclas Havelid and replace him with another Swedish defenseman come draft day.

As this season has gone on, I’ve changed my view as to what this team needs at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft. Though this is also a topic for another blog, a much later blog, the Thrashers draft plans will affect what happens at the deadline this year.

Honestly, I think that Enstrom, Bogosian, Valabik, and Hainsey can all be above average defenders in the Eastern Conference. Bogosian and Enstrom have the talent to be extraordinary, Valabik can fill a role and be a steadying presence of physicalness, and Ron Hainsey the veteran presence.

Garnet Exelby is a mystery. He played well at the beginning of this season, but injury problems have really taken it’s toll on the type of game that Exelby used to play. A guy that would deliver bone-crunching hits, Exelby has gone away from the game that got him to the NHL. By the end of Ex’s contract, if he’s not a third pairing defensemen then Atlanta hasn’t developed their talent properly.

The only real NHL talent that Atlanta seems to have in Chicago is Artus Kulda. After a great playoff experience last year, Kulda’s season in Chicago has been marred by injuries. By all accounts, Kulda has the capability to be a sturdy defensive partner for his former junior teammate Zach Bogosian. I think that Artus is still a year away from being a consistent contributor to the NHL game and I believe the Thrashers are in no rush to hurry his development.

When looking at the personnel that Atlanta has available now and potentially in the future (with development of the young ones), the Thrashers blueline looks talented. Talent will only get you so far though and the Thrashers have to have a better system. We’ve seen a much better Kari Lehtonen is the last month and Ondrej Pavelec is knocking at the door.

Atlanta has the tools to improve defensively as a team, but all of these guys are young and it will take time for it to slide into place. The key is the forecheck. The key is currently lost.

Poll Results

The voting is in and Colby Armstrong was the winner. The question posed was which current Thrasher is the best fit for the Peverley and Kovalchuk line? Since the poll was posted, John Anderson has since blown up the line combinations.

Most recently, Ilya is playing to the left of Todd White and Bryan Little. Peverley is centering Slava Kozlov and Joe Motzko, while Armstrong stays on the third line with Marty Reasoner and Colin Stuart.

We'll see how the lines change when Jimmy Slater gets back into the mix and also after the trade deadline. Hopefully this team can pick up or call up some players for the future (immediate and long-term).

The poll results:

Chris Thorburn - 2 vote - 22 percent
Bryan Little - 1 vote - 11 percent
Colby Armstrong - 6 votes - 66 percent
Joe Motzko - 0 votes -0 percent

I shall concoct a new poll in a day or two. The cauldren of question has not spoken to me as of yet.

The Future of the Thrashers’ Defense: Part One - Strategy

The saying goes, “Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships.” One of the most overused phrases in all of sports, but that doesn’t make the quote any less true. Nearly nine seasons down the road for the Atlanta Thrashers and exactly one slightly unimpressive championship: a Southeast Division championship in 2006-07.

The futility of the Atlanta hockey defensive system is one of the most well-documented complaints of the Thrashers fan base. There is tons of history to keep us whining and crying about goalies’ groins, pucks going in off defenseman’s heads (I’m looking at you Yannick Tremblay), falling down, not getting up, conceding the blueline and so on and so forth and so so and on fourth…. Get it? The Thrashers defense is bad and always has been.

In this post, I will attempt to explain some of the reasons as to why the current unit of Thrashers is struggling so mightily on the defensive side of things.

When goals are scored, especially in whopping amounts allowed by Atlanta (190, 30^th-dead last in the NHL), the natural and also uninformed knee-jerk reaction is to blame the goalie. He’s guy that is allowing them, right? True, the puck beats the goalie… after it has beaten everybody else. The net-minder is the last line of defense.

A good defense starts with the forecheck. A great defense feeds of the forecheck. Personally, I believe in a two-man forecheck i.e. sending in two forwards into the opposing team’s defensive third. The Thrashers, in theory, also believe in a two-man forecheck, but Atlanta is inconsistent in the forecheck. The same positions, same responsibilities, suddenly become different on a line-by-line, shift-by-shift basis.

Now, I’m the first to rebel against a uniform system. Chances are if you like it, I don’t (unless I can turn you to the darkside!). But the Thrashers and any team system must be uniform. The parts, especially when factoring a team defensive philosophy, must be relatively interchangeable. This uniformity must be within reason. We all know that Ilya Kovalchuk is just not the defensive player that Colin Stuart is on the left wing, but that doesn’t relieve Ilya of his defensive responsibilities and position on the ice.

Ah, the first left wing mention, which brings us to the left wing lock. What’s this you might ask? The left wing lock is a defensive system, supposedly implemented by the John Anderson, to cut down opposing team’s speed entering the Thrashers’ defensive third and reduce odd-man rushes. For a decent explanation of the left wing lock, check this linky out (it’s wikipedia, so you know you are getting the best information!).

Does that sound like the Thrashers to you? I don’t think so.

Here is what Atlanta does, inconsistency not included… On the forecheck, the Thrashers send two forwards in. Good so far, right, here is where the good stops. These forwards (normally the center and the right wing) are supposed to stay relatively tightly spaced (an outstretched stick length apart) to keep passes from going through the middle of the ice. The idea is to force the first pass from behind the net to the side wall, near the circles.

The Thrashers, in most cases, come too far down into the zone as a group, stagger the forwards, and leave way too much space for opposing teams to easily use the middle. When Atlanta does force a pass to the half wall, the forward to that side converges on the puck carrier to force a pass. At this instance, the left wing, who has been playing a zone coverage in the middle of the ice (on the opposing teams’ half) will shift towards the wall, about halfway from the blueline to the redline, to cut off a pass to the middle.

The other forechecking forward will drift back to the blueline, away from the wall on the opposite side. The defenseman on the off side will step up from the blueline to take away the cross ice pass.

The Thrashers, rarely getting this far, get too aggressive in this set. The only forward that is supposed to go after the puck is the forechecking forward on the near side. Everybody else continues to play defense. Ideally, the puck carrier along the wall try and force a pass into the middle that creates a turnover. If he goes backwards, then the Thrashers can re-implement the first stages of the forecheck.

The keys to a healthy forecheck are as follows (in order): First, take away the middle of the ice for the first pass. Second, force the puck to the wall and keep it there. Third, create frustration passes and turnovers through timed aggressiveness. Timed aggressiveness meaning that the forecheckers have to use the right judgement as to when to pressure the puck. This can be an on ice read after a bobble or bad pass or it can be regimented to a certain part of the ice (like along the boards).

In all honesty, the Thrashers forecheck is undisciplined, lazy, and most of the players have mental breakdowns. Imagine a basketball team that uses a full-court press, but two or three of the players are out of position. Will that press work? To me, the forecheck is the most important part of the defensive scheme because it sets the tone for the game.

When looking at defense through the middle of the ice, without a solid forecheck in the left wing lock there is no reason to talk about the defense through the middle.

As we start to take a look at the back end, it is important to note some things off the rush. The Thrashers, as a team, concede the blueline far too easily. This is not the defenseman’s fault, but in fact the lack of a solid forecheck. If the Thrashers are beaten down the ice by the breakout of opposing teams, the failed forwards from the left wing lock are way behind the play.

This creates a rush, either two-on-to or odd-man. The Thrashers defensemen have to concede the blueline in this instance. When Atlanta defensemen such as Garnet Exelby or Mathieu Schneider do end up trying to make a play at the blueline and get beat (which is more likely than making a great defensive play), then the hapless defender is left with one out of position defenseman, three forwards behind the play, and three offensive players on the rush with time and space. The result is going to be high quality scoring chances and goals. Without fixing the forecheck first, the only way to combat this problem is to change the entire way the Thrashers play defense… which may not be a bad idea.

So, if the theme here isn’t obvious enough, the primary task of the Atlanta Thrashers at this point is to fix the forecheck. In my professional experience, I’ve found that coaches can be extremely stubborn when dealing with their system. So, the personnel has to change. The addition of Rich Peverley was a great pickup for Anderson’s system, but guys like Spencer Machacek, Riley Holzapfel, and Jordan LaVallee could all be very valuable assets to the Thrashers system

In part two, we’ll look at the personnel that the Thrashers have and need to improve the team defense.